I finally was able to make it into an Apple store this weekend and get my hands on the Apple iPad to see if all the buzz about the device was warranted. As a follow-up to my post about the iPad, I’d like to make a prediction. I do not believe that the device will sell nearly as well as all the analysts predict.
I say this despite the fact that it technically is great. The screen resolution, responsiveness to the touch, and ease of use is really as good as people have been exhorting. However, I cannot help but wonder what its positioning is in the mind of the customer. In fact, as I stood in the Apple store playing with the iPad, a gentlemen came up to me and said, “Why do I need this? Is it any better than what I have here?” He was pointing to a MacBook he had tucked under his arm. I responded by repeating some of the benefits I had heard, but ended the conversation thinking that perhaps he has a point.
As a precursor, the Wall Street Journal is reporting today that Palm is looking to sell itself. Despite the fact that its new webOS has received very favorable reviews and hits on many of the unmet needs customers have while being mobile, the company has had a difficult time gaining sales. I believe this is absolutely due to their lack of a valued position in the market. RIM has unambiguously staked its claim for the BlackBerry as the device for mobile professionals who need to stay connected to the office and Apple has positioned the iPhone as the elegant, sophisticated multimedia and gaming hand-held. Even Google has pushed Android as the open platform for the “techies.” What comes to mind when consumers think of the Palm Pre/Pixi? Not much. That is the problem.
Back to the iPad. As long as it is positioned as another hand-held device rather than a replacement for the computer, I don’t think the masses will buy it in volumes. Sure, the “innovators” and “early adopters” will get theirs. However, I believe without a clear and credible point of distinction in the mind of the consumer, like Palm’s Pre/Pixi, this product will struggle, at least by Apple’s standards. What do you think?